by Ajay Kumar
Lucknow: The ongoing talks between Congress and the Samajwadi Party (SP) regarding the upcoming by-elections in Uttar Pradesh are becoming increasingly tense. There are 10 seats up for election, and both parties are showing disagreement over the distribution of these seats. Congress is demanding 5 seats this time as it struggles to form a solid alliance with the SP, while the SP is only willing to concede 1 to 2 seats.
The seats Congress is seeking include Majhva in Mirzapur, Phulpur in Prayagraj, Ghaziabad, Khair, and Meerut. However, the SP’s stance on this demand is unclear, further complicating negotiations. Sensing the situation, Congress has appointed in-charges and observers for all 10 seats, who are conducting conferences in the respective areas. Through these conferences, Congress is trying to activate its workers at the booth level.
Congress’s approach is based on a 50-50 formula. The party believes that out of the 10 seats where elections are being held, 5 were won by the BJP-led NDA last time, and the SP has minimal influence on those seats. Therefore, Congress argues that it should receive the NDA seats while the SP should focus on its traditional 5 seats. This is a sort of experiment aimed at strengthening Congress’s strategy for the upcoming 2027 assembly elections. If Congress succeeds in securing 5 seats this time, it could have implications for future elections.
Ajay Rai, the state president of Congress, recently stated that the party wants to discuss only those seats where the BJP and its allies won in the last elections. According to him, Congress workers will support the SP in the seats where the SP was successful, while they are ready to contest in the strongholds of the BJP. This situation is becoming uncomfortable for the SP, as conceding more seats to Congress could mean weakening its own base.
In the 2017 assembly elections, Congress and the SP fought together, presenting themselves as a ‘pair of two boys.’ In that election, the SP contested 298 seats and Congress 105. In the subsequent 2024 Lok Sabha elections, both parties contested together again, with the SP fielding candidates in 63 seats and Congress in 17. In that election, the SP won 37 and Congress 6 seats, posing a strong challenge to the BJP.
However, the SP now wants to avoid a repeat of the situation where it has to concede more seats to Congress. Instead, it is in favor of offering only 1-2 seats to maintain its own position. Congress is demanding more seats this time with dedication, indicating its seriousness about strengthening its position in future electoral politics.
Political analysts believe that if Congress can secure 5 seats this time, it could bolster its position for the upcoming assembly elections. This would enhance its confidence and enable it to contend for at least 200 of the 403 assembly seats in 2027.
In this contentious situation, where there is a lack of coordination between the two parties, it remains to be seen how this tug-of-war will unfold. Whether the SP will succeed in maintaining its voter base or Congress will manage to assert its demands will be determined in the future. This could be a significant turning point in UP’s politics, presenting substantial challenges for both parties ahead.